Where do I begin? Where does anyone begin in the Middle East?

I've been away from my blog for awhile and in that time the world has turned itself upside down again. We still don't know who the next president of Mexico will be, though I predict that Calderon will come through leaving Obrador and his supporters with a close enough loss to demand respect. Count on them to jump on any weakness shown in the new government.

Meanwhile, the fighting in Lebanon has blown a new hole in the Middle East. It is so hard to really even see to the corner, let alone around it or down the road on this one. It has the Muslim World split. It is for sure winning Israel new or at least more fierce enemies. Will it reduce the threat they face from Hezbollah? We'll see. If they manage to do that, will something more terrible come in and take its place? What is Syria or Iran's role really? Has this terrorist organization gotten away from everyone? Will the pockets of anger directed by some Arabs angainst Hezbollah hold up if Isreal continues to inflict major punishment on the Lebanon? Personally, I think the Israelis have gone a bit overboard and are causing too much destruction of government and civilian property, lives and infrastructure. I believe it will result in yet another generation of Lebanese who hate and fear, and in the end, threaten the Zionist state, but I do not pretend to know enough about the psyche of the region to say with certainty if that is a risk that needs to be taken or not. And what of our support of Isreal? Do we need to stir up any more Islamic rancor?

Maybe that is why I have stayed away from the blog for a while. I read and listen to unending analysis of the situation, but too many intelligent people have too many differing views and what seems a subtilty in the Middle East, seems so often to be someone's essential point or emotional trigger that sorting it out is too much. I don't know how much we should wade into this one. I know we should not have waded into Iraq.

So often it seems we want to paint conflicts in this region with broad strokes, but there are so many divisions, so many alliances, so many competing needs and histories in the region, that it is sometimes what appears to be the smallest detail that can tip a scale one way or another. Clerics do not all agree. Sects don't see conflicts in the same light. Farsi speakers resent Arabic speakers and Arabic speakers distrust Farsi speakers. Governments are often too much absorbed in their own preservation to look objectively at problems. Oil alliances are on the line. Religious truths are worth dying for, but no two groups seem to hold the same set truths. In many corners poverty and ignorance are manipulated rather than alleviated. How do you wade into that mysterious morass?

One thing is sure about the Middle East, there is too much we do not know. Sadly, there is too much that our leaders seem not to know. Not to truly understand. I don't know if members of our government are able to choose which "experts" to listen to any more than I am. We must tread more carefully than we have recently if we are to tread at all.